The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 哈贝拉努夫 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 是 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 哈贝拉努夫 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 | 34.7% | 32.2% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| 哈贝拉努夫 | 35.6% | 44.0% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 哈贝拉努夫's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 哈贝拉努夫. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned 哈贝拉努夫; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 哈贝拉努夫 by 8.4 percentage points (44.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · 哈贝拉努夫 35.6%
- xG · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 1.29 — 哈贝拉努夫 1.31
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 2.80 · Draw 3.80 · 哈贝拉努夫 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 32.2% · Draw 23.8% · 哈贝拉努夫 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 2.80 · Draw 3.80 · 哈贝拉努夫 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 32.2% · Draw 23.8% · 哈贝拉努夫 44.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
