The model missed the final outcome (O&M大学队 win 0–1).
The model had projected 东部海豚 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 东部海豚 O&M大学队 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 东部海豚 | 39.5% | 49.6% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.4% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| O&M大学队 | 31.0% | 23.1% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 东部海豚's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
全场结束后，赛果为 O&M大学队 win 0–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 东部海豚 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 东部海豚; match finished O&M大学队
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 东部海豚 by 10.1 percentage points (49.6% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 东部海豚 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · O&M大学队 31.0%
- xG · 东部海豚 1.39 — O&M大学队 1.21
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 东部海豚 1.79 · Draw 3.24 · O&M大学队 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · 东部海豚 49.6% · Draw 27.4% · O&M大学队 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 东部海豚 1.79 · Draw 3.24 · O&M大学队 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · 东部海豚 49.6% · Draw 27.4% · O&M大学队 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result O&M大学队 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
多米尼加足球甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 萨尔塞多 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | 东部海豚 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | 西巴奥 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | 莫卡 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | 维加雷亚尔 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | O&M大学队 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | 哈拉巴科阿 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 8 | 亚特兰蒂科 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 萨尔塞多 | 6 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | 维加雷亚尔 | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | O&M大学队 | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | 西巴奥 | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 5 | 东部海豚 | 7 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | 莫卡 | 7 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | 亚特兰蒂科 | 8 | 6 | 26 | -20 | |
| 8 | 哈拉巴科阿 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
