The model missed the final outcome (亚达纳邦 win 1–2).
The model had projected GFA at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 GFA 亚达纳邦 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFA | 36.1% | 18.8% | +17.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| 亚达纳邦 | 34.2% | 57.7% | -23.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 亚达纳邦's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 亚达纳邦 win 1–2。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned GFA; match finished 亚达纳邦
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on GFA by 23.4 percentage points (59.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · GFA 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 亚达纳邦 34.2%
- xG · GFA 1.32 — 亚达纳邦 1.28
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · GFA 4.75 · Draw 3.80 · 亚达纳邦 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · GFA 18.8% · Draw 23.5% · 亚达纳邦 57.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · GFA 4.75 · Draw 3.80 · 亚达纳邦 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · GFA 18.8% · Draw 23.5% · 亚达纳邦 57.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 亚达纳邦 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
缅甸国家联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 达贡 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | 仰光联 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | 掸联 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | 亚达纳邦 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | 实皆联 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | 阿耶瓦迪联队 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | 迪萨阿曼 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | 仰光皇家 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | 汉塔瓦迪联队 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | 妙瓦底 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 达贡 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | 仰光联 | 2 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | 掸联 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 4 | 实皆联 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | 迪萨阿曼 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | I.S.P.E | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | 亚达纳邦 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | 仰光皇家 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | 汉塔瓦迪联队 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | 阿耶瓦迪联队 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | 妙瓦底 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | GFA | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
