The model missed the final outcome (戈扎诺 win 0–2).
The model had projected 费扎内塞 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 费扎内塞 戈扎诺 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 费扎内塞 | 35.6% | 42.6% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.5% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| 戈扎诺 | 34.7% | 29.8% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates 费扎内塞's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 戈扎诺 win 0–2。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 费扎内塞. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 费扎内塞 by 7.0 percentage points (42.6% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 费扎内塞 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · 戈扎诺 34.7%
- xG · 费扎内塞 1.31 — 戈扎诺 1.29
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 费扎内塞 2.13 · Draw 3.10 · 戈扎诺 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · 费扎内塞 41.9% · Draw 28.8% · 戈扎诺 29.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 费扎内塞 2.10 · Draw 3.25 · 戈扎诺 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · 费扎内塞 42.6% · Draw 27.5% · 戈扎诺 29.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 戈扎诺 win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
意丁A组 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 比耶莱塞 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | 德尔托纳 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | 戈扎诺 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | 萨卢佐 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | 米莱西莫 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | 阿莱桑德里亚 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | 因佩里亚 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | 阿斯蒂 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | 利戈尔纳 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | 拉斯卡里斯 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | 费扎内塞 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | 圣雷梅塞 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | 博尔戈塞西亚 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | 基索拉 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | 塞斯特里莱万特 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | 布拉 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 | 瓦伦扎纳 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | 切莱瓦拉泽 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 利戈尔纳 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | 比耶莱塞 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | 萨卢佐 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | 米莱西莫 | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | 戈扎诺 | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | 阿莱桑德里亚 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | 德尔托纳 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | 费扎内塞 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | 阿斯蒂 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | 圣雷梅塞 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | 因佩里亚 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | 塞斯特里莱万特 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | 瓦伦扎纳 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | 博尔戈塞西亚 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | 基索拉 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | 拉斯卡里斯 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | 布拉 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | 切莱瓦拉泽 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
