The model missed the final outcome (诺里奇 win 1–2).
The model had projected 卡迪夫 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 卡迪夫 诺里奇 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 卡迪夫 | 39.0% | 34.8% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.9% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| 诺里奇 | 31.5% | 40.3% | -8.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 诺里奇's win probability at 40.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 诺里奇 win 1–2。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 诺里奇. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 卡迪夫; match finished 诺里奇
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 卡迪夫 by 8.8 percentage points (47.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 卡迪夫 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · 诺里奇 31.5%
- xG · 卡迪夫 1.38 — 诺里奇 1.22
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 卡迪夫 2.77 · Draw 3.86 · 诺里奇 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · 卡迪夫 34.8% · Draw 24.9% · 诺里奇 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 卡迪夫 2.77 · Draw 3.86 · 诺里奇 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · 卡迪夫 34.8% · Draw 24.9% · 诺里奇 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 诺里奇 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
英格兰. 英格兰联赛杯 预测
