The model missed the final outcome (胡志明市 win 3–1).
The model had projected 河内 at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 河内 胡志明市 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 胡志明市 City | 28.4% | 24.6% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 24.4% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| 河内 | 42.4% | 50.9% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 河内's win probability at 50.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 胡志明市 win 3–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 河内. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 河内; match finished 胡志明市
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 河内 by 8.6 percentage points (51.0% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 胡志明市 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · 河内 42.4%
- xG · 胡志明市 1.15 — 河内 1.45
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 胡志明市 3.72 · Draw 3.75 · 河内 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · 胡志明市 24.6% · Draw 24.4% · 河内 50.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 胡志明市 3.72 · Draw 3.75 · 河内 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · 胡志明市 24.6% · Draw 24.4% · 河内 50.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 胡志明市 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
越南足球甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 公安人民队 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | 富东队 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | 宋兰义安 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | 岘港队 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | 南定 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | 胡志明市 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | 越电信 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | 清化 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | 北宁 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | 海防 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | 红岭河静 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | 河内 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | 黄英嘉莱 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | 平福 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 公安人民队 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | 富东队 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | 宋兰义安 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | 岘港队 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | 南定 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | 清化 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | 海防 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | 胡志明市 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | 越电信 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | 河内 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | 北宁 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | 红岭河静 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | 黄英嘉莱 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | 平福 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
