The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 本阿克农 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 本阿克农 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 肯舍拉 | 32.9% | 43.0% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.4% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| 本阿克农 | 37.5% | 24.6% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates 本阿克农's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.6%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 本阿克农.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 本阿克农; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 本阿克农 by 12.9 percentage points (24.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 肯舍拉 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · 本阿克农 37.6%
- xG · 肯舍拉 1.25 — 本阿克农 1.35
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 肯舍拉 2.16 · Draw 2.86 · 本阿克农 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · 肯舍拉 43.0% · Draw 32.4% · 本阿克农 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 肯舍拉 2.16 · Draw 2.86 · 本阿克农 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · 肯舍拉 43.0% · Draw 32.4% · 本阿克农 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
阿尔及利亚甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 阿尔及尔USM | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | 贝鲁伊兹达德CR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | 奥兰MC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | 本阿克农 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | 康斯坦丁CS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | 泰穆尚特 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | 塞提夫ES | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | 阿尔及尔MC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | 埃尔比亚尔JS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | 卡拜利JS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | 阿克布奥德 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | MB鲁伊塞特 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | 肯舍拉 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | 比斯克拉US | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | 舍夫ASO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | 萨乌拉JS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 阿尔及尔USM | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | 贝鲁伊兹达德CR | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | 塞提夫ES | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | 康斯坦丁CS | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | 本阿克农 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | 埃尔比亚尔JS | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | 阿克布奥德 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | 奥兰MC | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | 舍夫ASO | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | 阿尔及尔MC | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | 泰穆尚特 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | MB鲁伊塞特 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | 比斯克拉US | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | 卡拜利JS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | 肯舍拉 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | 萨乌拉JS | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
