The model missed the final outcome (维斯佩萨罗 win 1–2).
The model had projected 佩鲁贾 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 佩鲁贾 维斯佩萨罗 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 佩鲁贾 | 39.0% | 47.2% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| 维斯佩萨罗 | 31.5% | 23.9% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 佩鲁贾's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 维斯佩萨罗 win 1–2。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 佩鲁贾. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 佩鲁贾; match finished 维斯佩萨罗
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 佩鲁贾 by 8.2 percentage points (47.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 佩鲁贾 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · 维斯佩萨罗 31.5%
- xG · 佩鲁贾 1.38 — 维斯佩萨罗 1.22
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 佩鲁贾 1.94 · Draw 3.17 · 维斯佩萨罗 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · 佩鲁贾 47.2% · Draw 28.9% · 维斯佩萨罗 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 佩鲁贾 1.94 · Draw 3.17 · 维斯佩萨罗 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · 佩鲁贾 47.2% · Draw 28.9% · 维斯佩萨罗 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 维斯佩萨罗 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
