The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 瓦多 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 瓦多 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 瓦多 | 36.1% | 27.2% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| 国际米兰U23 | 34.2% | 43.4% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 国际米兰U23's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 国际米兰U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 瓦多; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 瓦多 by 9.2 percentage points (45.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 瓦多 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 国际米兰U23 34.2%
- xG · 瓦多 1.32 — 国际米兰U23 1.28
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 瓦多 3.37 · Draw 3.12 · 国际米兰U23 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · 瓦多 27.2% · Draw 29.4% · 国际米兰U23 43.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 瓦多 3.37 · Draw 3.12 · 国际米兰U23 2.11
- Implied 1X2 · 瓦多 27.2% · Draw 29.4% · 国际米兰U23 43.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
