The model missed the final outcome (马杜雷拉 win 0–1).
The model had projected 葡萄牙人RJ at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 葡萄牙人RJ 马杜雷拉 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 葡萄牙人RJ | 40.9% | 51.8% | -10.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.9% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
| 马杜雷拉 | 29.7% | 18.3% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates 马杜雷拉's win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.3%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 马杜雷拉 win 0–1。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 马杜雷拉.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 葡萄牙人RJ; match finished 马杜雷拉
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 葡萄牙人RJ by 11.4 percentage points (29.5% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 葡萄牙人RJ 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · 马杜雷拉 29.6%
- xG · 葡萄牙人RJ 1.42 — 马杜雷拉 1.18
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 葡萄牙人RJ 1.74 · Draw 3.01 · 马杜雷拉 4.92
- Implied 1X2 · 葡萄牙人RJ 51.8% · Draw 29.9% · 马杜雷拉 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 葡萄牙人RJ 1.74 · Draw 3.01 · 马杜雷拉 4.92
- Implied 1X2 · 葡萄牙人RJ 51.8% · Draw 29.9% · 马杜雷拉 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 马杜雷拉 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
巴西. 里约杯 预测
