The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 特赖巴赫 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 特赖巴赫 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 特赖巴赫 | 36.1% | 44.2% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| 费尔登 | 34.2% | 29.9% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates 特赖巴赫's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 特赖巴赫. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 特赖巴赫; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 特赖巴赫 by 8.1 percentage points (44.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 特赖巴赫 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 费尔登 34.2%
- xG · 特赖巴赫 1.32 — 费尔登 1.28
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 特赖巴赫 2.01 · Draw 3.43 · 费尔登 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · 特赖巴赫 44.2% · Draw 25.9% · 费尔登 29.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 特赖巴赫 2.01 · Draw 3.43 · 费尔登 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · 特赖巴赫 44.2% · Draw 25.9% · 费尔登 29.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
奥地利地区联赛南部 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 克拉根福特奥地利 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | 沃尔夫斯贝格二队 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | 费尔登 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | 德国斯堡SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | 费尔克马克特 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | 卡尔斯多夫 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | 特赖巴赫 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | 魏茨 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | 拉夫尼茨 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | 阿勒海利根 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | 蒂尔米奇 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | 沃尔夫斯贝格AC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | 沃尔夫斯贝格 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | 布莱堡 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | 格莱斯多夫09 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | 多瑙克拉根福特 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | 哈特贝格二队 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 克拉根福特奥地利 | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 | 德国斯堡SC | 8 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 | 费尔登 | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 4 | 费尔克马克特 | 9 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 5 | 拉夫尼茨 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | 阿勒海利根 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | 魏茨 | 8 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 13 |
| 8 | 卡尔斯多夫 | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 14 |
| 9 | 特赖巴赫 | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
| 10 | 蒂尔米奇 | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | 布莱堡 | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | 沃尔夫斯贝格AC | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | 格莱斯多夫09 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | 多瑙克拉根福特 | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | 哈特贝格二队 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 |
| 16 | 沃尔夫斯贝格 | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | 沃尔夫斯贝格二队 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
