AI correctly predicted the 凯什拉 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 凯什拉 凯什拉 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 凯什拉 | 35.2% | 48.2% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.2% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| 阿拉兹 | 35.2% | 23.6% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 凯什拉's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（凯什拉 win 2–1）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 凯什拉 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 凯什拉 higher (48.2% vs model 35.2%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (凯什拉 win 2–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 凯什拉 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · 阿拉兹 35.2%
- xG · 凯什拉 1.30 — 阿拉兹 1.30
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 凯什拉 1.90 · Draw 3.25 · 阿拉兹 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · 凯什拉 48.2% · Draw 28.2% · 阿拉兹 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 凯什拉 1.90 · Draw 3.25 · 阿拉兹 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · 凯什拉 48.2% · Draw 28.2% · 阿拉兹 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 凯什拉 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
阿塞拜疆超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 纳夫特奇巴库 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | 萨巴赫 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | 卡拉巴赫 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | 图兰 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 兹拉 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | 凯什拉 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | 卡帕兹 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | 加巴拉 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | 米尔穆甘 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | 萨法巴库 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | 苏姆盖特 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 | 阿拉兹 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 纳夫特奇巴库 | 6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | 萨巴赫 | 5 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | 卡拉巴赫 | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | 凯什拉 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | 兹拉 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | 图兰 | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | 米尔穆甘 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | 阿拉兹 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 9 | 卡帕兹 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | 苏姆盖特 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 | 加巴拉 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | 萨法巴库 | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
