The model missed the final outcome (阿塞里FC win 0–2).
The model had projected 瓜达卢佩FC at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 瓜达卢佩FC 阿塞里FC ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 瓜达卢佩FC | 43.4% | 64.7% | -21.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 20.5% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
| 阿塞里FC | 27.5% | 14.8% | +12.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 瓜达卢佩FC's win probability at 64.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 阿塞里FC win 0–2。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 瓜达卢佩FC; match finished 阿塞里FC
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 瓜达卢佩FC by 21.4 percentage points (64.8% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 瓜达卢佩FC 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · 阿塞里FC 27.5%
- xG · 瓜达卢佩FC 1.47 — 阿塞里FC 1.13
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 瓜达卢佩FC 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · 阿塞里FC 5.98
- Implied 1X2 · 瓜达卢佩FC 64.7% · Draw 20.5% · 阿塞里FC 14.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 瓜达卢佩FC 1.37 · Draw 4.33 · 阿塞里FC 5.98
- Implied 1X2 · 瓜达卢佩FC 64.7% · Draw 20.5% · 阿塞里FC 14.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 阿塞里FC win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
哥斯达黎加乙级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 阿塞里FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | 圣巴巴拉斗牛犬FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | 希卡拉尔ADR | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | 圣安娜 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | 克波斯坎布特 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | 卡梅利塔AD | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | 卡里亚里波科西 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | 格雷西亚市 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | 萨尔奇AD | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | 莫拉维亚足球顾问队 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | 乌拉圭CS | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | 圣克鲁斯FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | 瓜达卢佩FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | 科富特帕AD | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 阿塞里FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | 卡梅利塔AD | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | 圣巴巴拉斗牛犬FC | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | 克波斯坎布特 | 7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | 莫拉维亚足球顾问队 | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | 希卡拉尔ADR | 7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 7 | 圣安娜 | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | 圣克鲁斯FC | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | 卡里亚里波科西 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | 格雷西亚市 | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 | 萨尔奇AD | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | 瓜达卢佩FC | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 | 乌拉圭CS | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | 科富特帕AD | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
