The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 登嘉楼 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 登嘉楼 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 登嘉楼 | 39.5% | 57.6% | -18.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| 槟城 | 31.0% | 18.6% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 登嘉楼's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 登嘉楼 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 登嘉楼; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 登嘉楼 by 18.1 percentage points (57.6% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 登嘉楼 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · 槟城 31.0%
- xG · 登嘉楼 1.39 — 槟城 1.21
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 登嘉楼 1.57 · Draw 3.79 · 槟城 4.87
- Implied 1X2 · 登嘉楼 57.6% · Draw 23.9% · 槟城 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 登嘉楼 1.57 · Draw 3.79 · 槟城 4.87
- Implied 1X2 · 登嘉楼 57.6% · Draw 23.9% · 槟城 18.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
马来西亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 柔佛DT | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | 古晋足协 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | 雪兰莪 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | 沙巴 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | 吉隆坡足协 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | 登嘉楼 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | 森美兰 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | 槟城 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | DPMM足球俱乐部 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | 马六甲 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | 移民局队 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | 吉兰丹红勇士队 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 柔佛DT | 5 | 25 | 0 | +25 | 15 |
| 2 | 古晋足协 | 5 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | 雪兰莪 | 3 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | 森美兰 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | 沙巴 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | 马六甲 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | 登嘉楼 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | 吉隆坡足协 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 |
| 9 | 移民局队 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 |
| 10 | 吉兰丹红勇士队 | 5 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 0 |
| 11 | 槟城 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | DPMM足球俱乐部 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
