The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 武里南联 at 50.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 武里南联 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 武里南联 | 50.4% | 80.0% | -29.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.1% | 12.9% | +17.2 pp | Model Edge |
| 清莱联 | 19.5% | 7.0% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 武里南联's win probability at 80.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.4%, a difference of 29.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 武里南联; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 武里南联 by 29.7 percentage points (80.1% vs model 50.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 武里南联 50.3% · Draw 30.1% · 清莱联 19.6%
- xG · 武里南联 1.44 — 清莱联 0.81
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 武里南联 1.16 · Draw 7.17 · 清莱联 13.25
- Implied 1X2 · 武里南联 80.0% · Draw 12.9% · 清莱联 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 武里南联 1.16 · Draw 7.17 · 清莱联 13.25
- Implied 1X2 · 武里南联 80.0% · Draw 12.9% · 清莱联 7.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
泰国甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 武里南联 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | 罗勇FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | 乌泰他尼队 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | 巴蜀府 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | 曼谷联 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | 港口足球俱乐部 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | 大城FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | 曼谷玻璃 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | 叻丕府 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | 清莱联 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | 北大年 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | 素可泰FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | 四色菊联 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | 拉西萨莱联队 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | 南奔勇士 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | 春武里FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 乌泰他尼队 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | 曼谷联 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | 武里南联 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | 罗勇FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | 港口足球俱乐部 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | 曼谷玻璃 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | 巴蜀府 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | 大城FC | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | 拉西萨莱联队 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | 叻丕府 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | 素可泰FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | 南奔勇士 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | 清莱联 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | 北大年 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | 四色菊联 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | 春武里FC | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
