The model missed the final outcome (托卢卡U21 win 2–3).
The model had projected 蓝十字U21 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (5 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 蓝十字U21 托卢卡U21 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 蓝十字U21 | 35.2% | 32.4% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| 托卢卡U21 | 35.2% | 40.5% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 托卢卡U21's win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 托卢卡U21 win 2–3。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 托卢卡U21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 蓝十字U21; match finished 托卢卡U21
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 蓝十字U21 by 5.4 percentage points (40.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 蓝十字U21 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · 托卢卡U21 35.2%
- xG · 蓝十字U21 1.30 — 托卢卡U21 1.30
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 蓝十字U21 2.75 · Draw 3.30 · 托卢卡U21 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · 蓝十字U21 32.4% · Draw 27.0% · 托卢卡U21 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 蓝十字U21 2.75 · Draw 3.30 · 托卢卡U21 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · 蓝十字U21 32.4% · Draw 27.0% · 托卢卡U21 40.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 托卢卡U21 win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
墨西哥U21联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 托卢卡U21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | 莱昂俱乐部U21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | 蒂华纳U21 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | 普埃布拉U21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | 蓝十字U21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | 瓜达拉哈拉芝华士U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | 美洲俱乐部U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | 蒙特雷U21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | 华雷斯U21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | 圣路易斯竞技U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | 内卡萨U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | 亚特兰特U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | 阿特拉斯U21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | 美洲狮U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | 桑托斯拉古纳U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | 帕丘卡U21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | 老虎大学U21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | 克雷塔罗U21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 托卢卡U21 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 2 | 莱昂俱乐部U21 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | 蒙特雷U21 | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | 蓝十字U21 | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | 蒂华纳U21 | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | 瓜达拉哈拉芝华士U21 | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | 圣路易斯竞技U21 | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | 美洲俱乐部U21 | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | 亚特兰特U21 | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | 阿特拉斯U21 | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | 普埃布拉U21 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | 帕丘卡U21 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | 内卡萨U21 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | 克雷塔罗U21 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | 华雷斯U21 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | 美洲狮U21 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | 老虎大学U21 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | 桑托斯拉古纳U21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 10 |
