The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 | 38.5% | 51.1% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.1% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 | 31.9% | 21.8% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 by 12.6 percentage points (51.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 31.9%
- xG · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 1.37 — 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 1.23
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 1.75 · Draw 3.30 · 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 51.1% · Draw 27.1% · 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 1.75 · Draw 3.30 · 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 51.1% · Draw 27.1% · 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
土耳其丙级联赛第1组 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 奥尔杜体育1967 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | 帕扎尔体育 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | 托卡特市政普莱夫内体育俱乐部 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | 法察市体育 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | 阿马西亚体育1968 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | 迪兹杰体育 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | 卡拉登兹埃雷利BSK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | 卡尔塔尔布尔瓦尔体育 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | 戈尔居克体育 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | 亚洛瓦耶希洛瓦体育 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | 卡拉比克伊德曼尤尔杜 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | 加拉塔 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | 西利夫里体育俱乐部 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | 英克拉普体育 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | 图兹拉体育俱乐部 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | 贝伊科兹伊沙克利体育 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 奥尔杜体育1967 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | 卡尔塔尔布尔瓦尔体育 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | 帕扎尔体育 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | 托卡特市政普莱夫内体育俱乐部 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | 库丘克切克梅杰锡诺普体育 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | 戈尔居克体育 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | 亚洛瓦耶希洛瓦体育 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | 法察市体育 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | 阿马西亚体育1968 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | 迪兹杰体育 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | 英克拉普体育 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | 宗古尔达克煤矿体育 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | 卡拉比克伊德曼尤尔杜 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | 卡拉登兹埃雷利BSK | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | 加拉塔 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | 图兹拉体育俱乐部 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | 西利夫里体育俱乐部 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | 贝伊科兹伊沙克利体育 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
