AI correctly predicted the 沃尔特费雷蒂 win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 沃尔特费雷蒂 沃尔特费雷蒂 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 兰乔圣塔纳 | 28.8% | 33.8% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 23.5% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| 沃尔特费雷蒂 | 41.9% | 42.7% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（沃尔特费雷蒂 win 1–3）。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 沃尔特费雷蒂 more conservatively (36.1% vs model 41.9%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (沃尔特费雷蒂 win 1–3).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 兰乔圣塔纳 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · 沃尔特费雷蒂 41.9%
- xG · 兰乔圣塔纳 1.16 — 沃尔特费雷蒂 1.44
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 22:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 兰乔圣塔纳 2.68 · Draw 3.85 · 沃尔特费雷蒂 2.12
- Implied 1X2 · 兰乔圣塔纳 33.8% · Draw 23.5% · 沃尔特费雷蒂 42.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 兰乔圣塔纳 2.68 · Draw 3.85 · 沃尔特费雷蒂 2.12
- Implied 1X2 · 兰乔圣塔纳 33.8% · Draw 23.5% · 沃尔特费雷蒂 42.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 沃尔特费雷蒂 win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
尼加拉瓜甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马那瓜 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | 迪里安亨 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | 皇家埃斯特利 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | 马那瓜国立自治大学 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | 圣马科斯 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H出口 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | 马塔加尔帕 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | 沃尔特费雷蒂 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | 哈拉帕 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | 兰乔圣塔纳 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马那瓜 | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | 迪里安亨 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | 皇家埃斯特利 | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | 沃尔特费雷蒂 | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | 马那瓜国立自治大学 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 圣马科斯 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H出口 | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | 兰乔圣塔纳 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | 哈拉帕 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | 马塔加尔帕 | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
