The model missed the final outcome (阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 win 1–3).
The model had projected 蒙扎 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 蒙扎 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 蒙扎 | 36.1% | 47.7% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 | 34.2% | 25.3% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 蒙扎's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 win 1–3。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 蒙扎 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 蒙扎; match finished 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 蒙扎 by 11.6 percentage points (47.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 蒙扎 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 34.2%
- xG · 蒙扎 1.32 — 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 1.28
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 蒙扎 1.86 · Draw 3.28 · 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · 蒙扎 47.7% · Draw 27.0% · 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 蒙扎 1.86 · Draw 3.28 · 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · 蒙扎 47.7% · Draw 27.0% · 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 30, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 阿里斯塞萨洛尼基 win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
世界. 俱乐部友谊赛 预测
