The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 马舒克-KMV at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 马舒克-KMV 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 马舒克-KMV | 37.5% | 47.5% | -10.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.7% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| 卡卢加 | 32.9% | 22.7% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates 卡卢加's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.7%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 卡卢加.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 马舒克-KMV; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 马舒克-KMV by 10.1 percentage points (27.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 马舒克-KMV 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · 卡卢加 32.9%
- xG · 马舒克-KMV 1.35 — 卡卢加 1.25
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 马舒克-KMV 1.89 · Draw 3.02 · 卡卢加 3.95
- Implied 1X2 · 马舒克-KMV 47.5% · Draw 29.7% · 卡卢加 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 马舒克-KMV 1.89 · Draw 3.02 · 卡卢加 3.95
- Implied 1X2 · 马舒克-KMV 47.5% · Draw 29.7% · 卡卢加 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
俄罗斯乙级联赛A组金组 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 基洛夫迪纳摩 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | 莫斯科罗迪纳二队 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 3 | 布良斯克迪纳摩 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | 新西伯利亚 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | 符拉迪沃斯托克迪纳摩 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | 马舒克-KMV | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | 弗拉季高加索阿拉尼亚 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | 伏尔加阿斯特拉罕 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | 萨拉托夫索科尔队 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | 卡卢加 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 莫斯科罗迪纳二队 | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 | 新西伯利亚 | 11 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | 弗拉季高加索阿拉尼亚 | 11 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | 基洛夫迪纳摩 | 11 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 23 |
| 5 | 伏尔加阿斯特拉罕 | 11 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | 布良斯克迪纳摩 | 11 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | 萨拉托夫索科尔队 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 8 | 马舒克-KMV | 11 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | 符拉迪沃斯托克迪纳摩 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | 卡卢加 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
