AI correctly predicted the 斯基夫 win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (5 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 斯基夫 斯基夫 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥德 | 33.3% | 24.8% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| 斯基夫 | 37.1% | 49.5% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 斯基夫's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（斯基夫 win 2–3）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 斯基夫 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 斯基夫 higher (49.6% vs model 37.1%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (斯基夫 win 2–3).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 奥德 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · 斯基夫 37.0%
- xG · 奥德 1.26 — 斯基夫 1.34
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 奥德 3.49 · Draw 3.38 · 斯基夫 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · 奥德 24.8% · Draw 25.6% · 斯基夫 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 奥德 3.49 · Draw 3.38 · 斯基夫 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · 奥德 24.8% · Draw 25.6% · 斯基夫 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 斯基夫 win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
