The model missed the final outcome (霍特文内 win 3–4).
The model had projected 斯波文-莫佩廷根 at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (7 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 是 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 斯波文-莫佩廷根 霍特文内 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 斯波文-莫佩廷根 | 39.9% | 49.6% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 22.3% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| 霍特文内 | 30.6% | 28.1% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates 斯波文-莫佩廷根's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
全场结束后，赛果为 霍特文内 win 3–4。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 斯波文-莫佩廷根. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 斯波文-莫佩廷根 by 9.6 percentage points (49.5% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · 霍特文内 30.6%
- xG · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 1.40 — 霍特文内 1.20
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 1.85 · Draw 4.11 · 霍特文内 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 49.6% · Draw 22.3% · 霍特文内 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 1.85 · Draw 4.11 · 霍特文内 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · 斯波文-莫佩廷根 49.6% · Draw 22.3% · 霍特文内 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 霍特文内 win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
比利时业余甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 梅乌 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | 布鲁塞尔RWDM | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | 图比兹 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | 罗什福尔 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | 圣吉罗斯联合二队 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | 阿尔贝特凯维-蒙斯 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | 昂海 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | 沙勒罗瓦体育二队 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | 标准列日二队 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | 哈贝拉努夫 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | 弗莱努 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 梅乌 | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | 罗什福尔 | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | 阿尔贝特凯维-蒙斯 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | 图比兹 | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | 布鲁塞尔RWDM | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | 昂海 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | 圣吉罗斯联合二队 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | 标准列日二队 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | 哈贝拉努夫 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | 弗莱努 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 11 | 沙勒罗瓦体育二队 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 沙勒罗瓦奥林匹克 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
