The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected 霍尔贝克B&I at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 霍尔贝克B&I 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 霍尔斯特布罗 | 33.8% | 28.9% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.3% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
| 霍尔贝克B&I | 36.6% | 48.8% | -12.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 霍尔贝克B&I's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 2–2。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 霍尔贝克B&I than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 霍尔贝克B&I; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 霍尔贝克B&I by 12.2 percentage points (48.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 霍尔斯特布罗 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · 霍尔贝克B&I 36.6%
- xG · 霍尔斯特布罗 1.27 — 霍尔贝克B&I 1.33
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 霍尔斯特布罗 3.12 · Draw 4.05 · 霍尔贝克B&I 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · 霍尔斯特布罗 28.9% · Draw 22.3% · 霍尔贝克B&I 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 霍尔斯特布罗 3.12 · Draw 4.05 · 霍尔贝克B&I 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · 霍尔斯特布罗 28.9% · Draw 22.3% · 霍尔贝克B&I 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
丹麦足球乙级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 霍尔贝克B&I | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | 布伦绍伊 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | 赫尔辛格FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | 万勒瑟 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | 霍尔斯特布罗 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | ASA奥胡斯 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | 内斯比 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | 霍尔斯霍姆-乌瑟勒德 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | 弗雷姆 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | 松比 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | 伊斯霍伊 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | 林斯特德 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 霍尔贝克B&I | 9 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | 赫尔辛格FC | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 3 | 布伦绍伊 | 8 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | 弗雷姆 | 8 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | 霍尔斯霍姆-乌瑟勒德 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | 霍尔斯特布罗 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | 万勒瑟 | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | 内斯比 | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | ASA奥胡斯 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | 松比 | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | 林斯特德 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 4 |
| 12 | 伊斯霍伊 | 8 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
