AI correctly predicted the 咸安 win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 咸安 咸安 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 咸安 | 36.1% | 14.1% | +22.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.8% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| 镇川 | 34.2% | 65.1% | -30.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 镇川's win probability at 65.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 30.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（咸安 win 3–1）。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 咸安 higher (67.0% vs model 36.1%, 30.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (咸安 win 3–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 咸安 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 镇川 34.2%
- xG · 咸安 1.32 — 镇川 1.28
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 咸安 6.29 · Draw 4.25 · 镇川 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · 咸安 14.1% · Draw 20.8% · 镇川 65.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 咸安 6.29 · Draw 4.25 · 镇川 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · 咸安 14.1% · Draw 20.8% · 镇川 65.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 咸安 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
韩国K4联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 晋州市民 | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | 镇川 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | 南杨州 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | 中浪合唱野马 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | 锦山人参 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | 堤川市民 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 7 | 巨济市民 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | 平昌联 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | 机张联 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | 世宗SA | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | 咸安 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 12 | 瑞山先锋 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | 平泽市民 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 晋州市民 | 20 | 50 | 16 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | 镇川 | 20 | 38 | 20 | +18 | 38 |
| 3 | 中浪合唱野马 | 20 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 34 |
| 4 | 锦山人参 | 21 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | 巨济市民 | 18 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | 南杨州 | 21 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | 世宗SA | 20 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | 机张联 | 20 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | 平昌联 | 20 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | 堤川市民 | 21 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | 咸安 | 19 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | 瑞山先锋 | 20 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 12 |
| 13 | 平泽市民 | 20 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 11 |
