The model missed the final outcome (机张联 win 0–2).
The model had projected 瑞山先锋 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 瑞山先锋 机张联 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 瑞山先锋 | 36.1% | 39.7% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| 机张联 | 34.2% | 33.4% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
全场结束后，赛果为 机张联 win 0–2。
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 瑞山先锋; match finished 机张联
市场启示
The full-time result was 机张联 win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 瑞山先锋 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 机张联 34.2%
- xG · 瑞山先锋 1.32 — 机张联 1.28
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 瑞山先锋 2.24 · Draw 3.30 · 机张联 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · 瑞山先锋 39.7% · Draw 26.9% · 机张联 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 07:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 瑞山先锋 2.24 · Draw 3.30 · 机张联 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · 瑞山先锋 39.7% · Draw 26.9% · 机张联 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 机张联 win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
韩国K4联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 晋州市民 | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | 镇川 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 38 |
| 3 | 南杨州 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | 中浪合唱野马 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | 锦山人参 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | 堤川市民 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 7 | 巨济市民 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | 平昌联 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | 机张联 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | 世宗SA | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | 咸安 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 12 | 瑞山先锋 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | 平泽市民 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 晋州市民 | 20 | 50 | 16 | +34 | 50 |
| 2 | 镇川 | 20 | 38 | 20 | +18 | 38 |
| 3 | 中浪合唱野马 | 20 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 34 |
| 4 | 锦山人参 | 21 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 32 |
| 5 | 巨济市民 | 18 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | 南杨州 | 21 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | 世宗SA | 20 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | 机张联 | 20 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 9 | 平昌联 | 20 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | 堤川市民 | 21 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | 咸安 | 19 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | 瑞山先锋 | 20 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 12 |
| 13 | 平泽市民 | 20 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 11 |
