AI correctly predicted the 奥萨苏纳 win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 奥萨苏纳 奥萨苏纳 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥萨苏纳 | 36.0% | 45.0% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.3% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| 桑坦德竞技 | 35.1% | 27.6% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 奥萨苏纳's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.0%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（奥萨苏纳 win 2–0）。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 奥萨苏纳. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 奥萨苏纳 higher (45.0% vs model 36.0%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (奥萨苏纳 win 2–0).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 奥萨苏纳 36.0% · Draw 28.9% · 桑坦德竞技 35.1%
- xG · 奥萨苏纳 1.24 — 桑坦德竞技 1.36
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 奥萨苏纳 1.97 · Draw 3.25 · 桑坦德竞技 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · 奥萨苏纳 45.0% · Draw 27.3% · 桑坦德竞技 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 奥萨苏纳 1.97 · Draw 3.25 · 桑坦德竞技 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · 奥萨苏纳 45.0% · Draw 27.3% · 桑坦德竞技 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 奥萨苏纳 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
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