墨西哥 vs 厄瓜多尔

墨西哥

Jul 01, 2026 - 01:00

2 1.23

0 1.47

厄瓜多尔

Betting Signal

模型显示: 厄瓜多尔 41.3%
市场显示: 墨西哥 22.6%
差异: 18.7 pp
状态: Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers 墨西哥 (22.6%).

This creates a conflict: Model → 厄瓜多尔, Market → 墨西哥, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

模型 vs 市场对比

墨西哥

30.0% vs 43.86%

-13.9 pp

Draw

28.8% vs 33.5%

-4.7 pp

厄瓜多尔

41.3% vs 22.64%

+18.7 pp

最大偏差

厄瓜多尔 +18.7 pp

模型对厄瓜多尔的乐观程度明显高于市场。

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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AI 预测

墨西哥 30.0%

Draw 28.8%

厄瓜多尔 41.3%

由 Elo 调整泊松模拟生成，非博彩赔率。

展开完整模型数据

Poisson 进球线概率

盘口	大	小
0.5	91.7%	8.3%
1.5	76.7%	23.3%
2.5	50.6%	49.4%
3.5	28.6%	71.4%
4.5	13.7%	86.3%

比赛走势预期

大 2.5 球

50.6%

Balanced

小 2.5 球

49.4%

双方进球

56.1%

Balanced

可能零封

43.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.1% · No 43.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

最可能比分

比分	概率
1-1	13.7%
1-2	8.9%
0-0	8.3%
0-1	8.3%
2-1	7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

常见问题

How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

比赛阶段: 已完赛

决策生命周期

当前阶段: 等待 CLV

预测已生成
市场已对比

入场待定
验证通过
收盘已记录

收盘 4.32
CLV 已评估

CLV 待定等待 CLV 计算

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