The model missed the final outcome (奥罗拉 win 1–0).
The model had projected 马拉卡特科 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 马拉卡特科 奥罗拉 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥罗拉 | 32.9% | 46.4% | -13.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.9% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| 马拉卡特科 | 37.5% | 25.7% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 奥罗拉's win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 奥罗拉 win 1–0。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 奥罗拉 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 马拉卡特科; match finished 奥罗拉
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 马拉卡特科 by 13.6 percentage points (51.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 奥罗拉 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · 马拉卡特科 37.6%
- xG · 奥罗拉 1.25 — 马拉卡特科 1.35
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 奥罗拉 1.97 · Draw 3.28 · 马拉卡特科 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · 奥罗拉 46.4% · Draw 27.9% · 马拉卡特科 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 奥罗拉 1.97 · Draw 3.28 · 马拉卡特科 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · 奥罗拉 46.4% · Draw 27.9% · 马拉卡特科 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 奥罗拉 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
危地马拉. 危地马拉全国联赛 预测
