The model missed the final outcome (圣珀尔滕女足 win 4–3).
The model had projected 年轻男孩女队 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (7 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 年轻男孩女队 圣珀尔滕女足 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 圣珀尔滕女足 | 31.0% | 49.0% | -18.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 22.9% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| 年轻男孩女队 | 39.5% | 28.1% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 圣珀尔滕女足's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 圣珀尔滕女足 win 4–3。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 圣珀尔滕女足 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 年轻男孩女队; match finished 圣珀尔滕女足
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 年轻男孩女队 by 18.0 percentage points (57.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 圣珀尔滕女足 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · 年轻男孩女队 39.5%
- xG · 圣珀尔滕女足 1.21 — 年轻男孩女队 1.39
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 圣珀尔滕女足 1.81 · Draw 3.88 · 年轻男孩女队 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · 圣珀尔滕女足 49.0% · Draw 22.9% · 年轻男孩女队 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 圣珀尔滕女足 1.81 · Draw 3.88 · 年轻男孩女队 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · 圣珀尔滕女足 49.0% · Draw 22.9% · 年轻男孩女队 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 圣珀尔滕女足 win · 4–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
欧洲女子冠军联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里昂女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | 巴塞罗那女队 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 本菲卡 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | 阿森纳女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | 切尔西女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | 国际米兰女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | 曼城女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 拜仁慕尼黑女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | 巴黎圣日耳曼女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | 皇家马德里女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | 鲁汶女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | 罗马女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | 尤文图斯女足 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | 奥地利维也纳女足 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | 哈肯 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | 科厄 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | 巴黎FC女队 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | 塞尔维特谢诺瓦女足 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里昂女足 | 1 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 2 | 巴塞罗那女队 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | 本菲卡 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | 曼城女足 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 拜仁慕尼黑女足 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 巴黎FC女队 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | 阿森纳女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | 切尔西女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | 国际米兰女足 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | 巴黎圣日耳曼女足 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | 皇家马德里女足 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | 尤文图斯女足 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | 鲁汶女足 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | 罗马女足 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | 奥地利维也纳女足 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | 哈肯 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | 科厄 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | 塞尔维特谢诺瓦女足 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
