The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 科佩尔 at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 科佩尔 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 布林耶-格罗苏普列 | 27.5% | 23.9% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 25.5% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| 科佩尔 | 43.4% | 50.6% | -7.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 科佩尔's win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 科佩尔. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 科佩尔; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 科佩尔 by 7.2 percentage points (50.6% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · 科佩尔 43.3%
- xG · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 1.13 — 科佩尔 1.47
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 3.98 · Draw 3.73 · 科佩尔 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 23.9% · Draw 25.5% · 科佩尔 50.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 3.98 · Draw 3.73 · 科佩尔 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · 布林耶-格罗苏普列 23.9% · Draw 25.5% · 科佩尔 50.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
斯洛文尼亚甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马里博尔 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | 科佩尔 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | 布拉沃 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | 卢布尔雅那奥林匹亚 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | 阿卢米尼 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | 纳夫塔 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | 采列 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | 布林耶-格罗苏普列 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | 穆拉 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | 拉多姆列 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马里博尔 | 10 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | 纳夫塔 | 10 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | 阿卢米尼 | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | 布林耶-格罗苏普列 | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | 布拉沃 | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 | 科佩尔 | 10 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | 采列 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | 卢布尔雅那奥林匹亚 | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | 穆拉 | 10 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | 拉多姆列 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
