The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected 科佩尔 at 49.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 科佩尔 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 科佩尔 | 49.7% | 64.8% | -15.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.1% | 17.7% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| 拉多姆列 | 24.2% | 17.5% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 科佩尔's win probability at 64.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.7%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 2–2。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 科佩尔 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 科佩尔; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 科佩尔 by 15.1 percentage points (64.8% vs model 49.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 科佩尔 49.7% · Draw 26.0% · 拉多姆列 24.3%
- xG · 科佩尔 1.48 — 拉多姆列 1.12
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 科佩尔 1.46 · Draw 5.34 · 拉多姆列 5.41
- Implied 1X2 · 科佩尔 64.8% · Draw 17.7% · 拉多姆列 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 科佩尔 1.46 · Draw 5.34 · 拉多姆列 5.41
- Implied 1X2 · 科佩尔 64.8% · Draw 17.7% · 拉多姆列 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
斯洛文尼亚甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马里博尔 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | 科佩尔 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | 布拉沃 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | 卢布尔雅那奥林匹亚 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | 阿卢米尼 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | 纳夫塔 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | 采列 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | 布林耶-格罗苏普列 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | 穆拉 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | 拉多姆列 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马里博尔 | 10 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | 纳夫塔 | 10 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | 阿卢米尼 | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | 布林耶-格罗苏普列 | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | 布拉沃 | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 | 科佩尔 | 10 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | 采列 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | 卢布尔雅那奥林匹亚 | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | 穆拉 | 10 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | 拉多姆列 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
