The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 鲁汶女足 at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 鲁汶女足 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亨克女足 | 25.8% | 9.3% | +16.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.9% | 14.5% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| 鲁汶女足 | 45.3% | 76.2% | -30.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 鲁汶女足's win probability at 76.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 30.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 鲁汶女足; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 鲁汶女足 by 30.8 percentage points (76.1% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 亨克女足 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · 鲁汶女足 45.3%
- xG · 亨克女足 1.09 — 鲁汶女足 1.51
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 亨克女足 9.22 · Draw 6.01 · 鲁汶女足 1.17
- Implied 1X2 · 亨克女足 9.6% · Draw 14.7% · 鲁汶女足 75.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 亨克女足 9.66 · Draw 6.19 · 鲁汶女足 1.18
- Implied 1X2 · 亨克女足 9.3% · Draw 14.5% · 鲁汶女足 76.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
比利时女子超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 安德莱赫特女足 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | 布鲁日女足 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | 鲁汶女足 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | RAAL拉卢维耶尔W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | 标准列日女足 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | 亨克女足 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 祖尔特瓦雷赫姆女足 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | 根特女足 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 安德莱赫特女足 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | 鲁汶女足 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | 布鲁日女足 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | 标准列日女足 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | RAAL拉卢维耶尔W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | 祖尔特瓦雷赫姆女足 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 7 | 根特女足 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| 8 | 亨克女足 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
