The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 埃斯比约 at 38.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 埃斯比约 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 埃斯比约 | 38.8% | 46.9% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.3% | 24.2% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| 科尔丁IF | 32.9% | 28.9% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates 埃斯比约's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.8%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 埃斯比约. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 埃斯比约; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 埃斯比约 by 8.1 percentage points (46.9% vs model 38.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 埃斯比约 38.8% · Draw 28.3% · 科尔丁IF 32.9%
- xG · 埃斯比约 1.31 — 科尔丁IF 1.29
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 埃斯比约 2.03 · Draw 3.94 · 科尔丁IF 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · 埃斯比约 46.9% · Draw 24.2% · 科尔丁IF 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 埃斯比约 2.03 · Draw 3.94 · 科尔丁IF 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · 埃斯比约 46.9% · Draw 24.2% · 科尔丁IF 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
丹麦足球超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 维多夫雷 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | 维积利 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | 弗雷德里西亚FC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | 奥胡斯弗雷马德 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | 奥尔堡 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | 霍布罗 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | 文德瑟尔FF | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | 哥本哈根AB | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | 希勒勒 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | 科尔丁IF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | 科厄格HB | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | 埃斯比约 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 维积利 | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 | 维多夫雷 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | 希勒勒 | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 4 | 弗雷德里西亚FC | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | 霍布罗 | 9 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 6 | 哥本哈根AB | 9 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | 奥尔堡 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | 科厄格HB | 9 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | 奥胡斯弗雷马德 | 9 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | 科尔丁IF | 9 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 文德瑟尔FF | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | 埃斯比约 | 9 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
