AI correctly predicted the 国际米兰 win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 国际米兰 国际米兰 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 卡尔斯鲁厄SC | 27.2% | 18.1% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 26.3% | 21.6% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| 国际米兰 | 46.5% | 60.3% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 国际米兰's win probability at 60.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（国际米兰 win 1–2）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 国际米兰 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 国际米兰 higher (60.3% vs model 46.5%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (国际米兰 win 1–2).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 27.2% · Draw 26.2% · 国际米兰 46.5%
- xG · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 1.28 — 国际米兰 1.32
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 7.00 · Draw 4.75 · 国际米兰 1.33
- Implied 1X2 · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 12.9% · Draw 19.1% · 国际米兰 68.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 5.00 · Draw 4.20 · 国际米兰 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · 卡尔斯鲁厄SC 18.1% · Draw 21.6% · 国际米兰 60.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 国际米兰 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
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