The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 伊图阿诺U20 at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 伊图阿诺U20 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 圣水U20 | 29.9% | 35.6% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 29.3% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| 伊图阿诺U20 | 40.9% | 35.2% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates 伊图阿诺U20's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.2%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 伊图阿诺U20.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 伊图阿诺U20; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 伊图阿诺U20 by 5.7 percentage points (35.2% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:19 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 圣水U20 30.0% · Draw 29.2% · 伊图阿诺U20 40.9%
- xG · 圣水U20 1.13 — 伊图阿诺U20 1.47
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 圣水U20 2.50 · Draw 3.04 · 伊图阿诺U20 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · 圣水U20 35.6% · Draw 29.3% · 伊图阿诺U20 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 圣水U20 2.50 · Draw 3.04 · 伊图阿诺U20 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · 圣水U20 35.6% · Draw 29.3% · 伊图阿诺U20 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
圣保罗U20联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 尤文图斯U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | 桑托斯U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 费罗维亚里亚U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | 圣保罗葡萄牙人U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | 葡萄牙人U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | 科林蒂安U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | 苏萨诺联合U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | 庞特普雷塔U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | 贾巴夸拉U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | 圣本托U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | 米拉索尔U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | 伊塔皮伦塞U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 美洲-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | 塞尔塔尼尼奥U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 尤文图斯U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | 桑托斯U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | 费罗维亚里亚U20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | 圣保罗葡萄牙人U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | 葡萄牙人U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | 科林蒂安U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | 苏萨诺联合U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | 庞特普雷塔U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | 贾巴夸拉U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | 圣本托U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | 米拉索尔U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | 伊塔皮伦塞U20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | 美洲-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | 塞尔塔尼尼奥U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
