The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Libya at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 Libya 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libya | 39.5% | 59.4% | -20.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.3% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Botswana | 31.0% | 14.2% | +16.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Libya's win probability at 59.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 2–2。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Libya than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned Libya; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on Libya by 20.0 percentage points (59.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Libya 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Botswana 31.0%
- xG · Libya 1.39 — Botswana 1.21
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Libya 1.56 · Draw 3.52 · Botswana 6.52
- Implied 1X2 · Libya 59.4% · Draw 26.3% · Botswana 14.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Libya 1.56 · Draw 3.52 · Botswana 6.52
- Implied 1X2 · Libya 59.4% · Draw 26.3% · Botswana 14.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
世界. 非洲国家杯预选赛 预测
