AI correctly predicted the 利马切体育 win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (5 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 利马切体育 利马切体育 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 利马切体育 | 44.8% | 63.1% | -18.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 20.7% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| 阿里卡圣马科斯队 | 26.2% | 16.2% | +10.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 利马切体育's win probability at 63.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（利马切体育 win 4–1）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 利马切体育 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- 利马切体育 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 利马切体育 higher (63.1% vs model 44.8%, 18.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (利马切体育 win 4–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 利马切体育 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · 阿里卡圣马科斯队 26.2%
- xG · 利马切体育 1.50 — 阿里卡圣马科斯队 1.10
-
Jul 05, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 利马切体育 1.45 · Draw 4.42 · 阿里卡圣马科斯队 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · 利马切体育 63.1% · Draw 20.7% · 阿里卡圣马科斯队 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 05, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 利马切体育 1.45 · Draw 4.42 · 阿里卡圣马科斯队 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · 利马切体育 63.1% · Draw 20.7% · 阿里卡圣马科斯队 16.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 利马切体育 win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
智利. 智利杯 预测
