The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected 洪卡 at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 洪卡 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 伊尔维斯二队 | 33.1% | 23.9% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 27.6% | 22.2% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| 洪卡 | 39.2% | 53.8% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 洪卡's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.2%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 2–2。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 洪卡 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 洪卡; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 洪卡 by 14.6 percentage points (53.8% vs model 39.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:53 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 伊尔维斯二队 33.1% · Draw 27.6% · 洪卡 39.2%
- xG · 伊尔维斯二队 1.38 — 洪卡 1.22
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 伊尔维斯二队 3.78 · Draw 4.07 · 洪卡 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · 伊尔维斯二队 23.9% · Draw 22.2% · 洪卡 53.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 伊尔维斯二队 3.78 · Draw 4.07 · 洪卡 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · 伊尔维斯二队 23.9% · Draw 22.2% · 洪卡 53.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
芬兰丙级联赛B组 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 洪卡 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| 2 | ÅIFK队 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
| 3 | EPS队 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | HJS学院 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | 伊尔维斯二队 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | P-Iirot队 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | GrIFK队 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | EBK队 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | 穆萨 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS队 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 洪卡 | 18 | 56 | 17 | +39 | 43 |
| 2 | 伊尔维斯二队 | 18 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | EPS队 | 18 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 32 |
| 4 | ÅIFK队 | 18 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 39 |
| 5 | HJS学院 | 18 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | P-Iirot队 | 18 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | EBK队 | 18 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 15 |
| 8 | GrIFK队 | 18 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 24 |
| 9 | 穆萨 | 18 | 19 | 55 | -36 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS队 | 18 | 10 | 54 | -44 | 1 |
