AI correctly predicted the 福塔雷萨U20 win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 福塔雷萨U20 福塔雷萨U20 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 考卡亚U20 | 21.1% | 13.8% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 26.5% | 21.2% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| 福塔雷萨U20 | 52.5% | 65.0% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 福塔雷萨U20's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.5%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（福塔雷萨U20 win 1–2）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 福塔雷萨U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- 福塔雷萨U20 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 福塔雷萨U20 higher (65.0% vs model 52.5%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (福塔雷萨U20 win 1–2).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 考卡亚U20 21.1% · Draw 26.5% · 福塔雷萨U20 52.4%
- xG · 考卡亚U20 1.09 — 福塔雷萨U20 1.51
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 考卡亚U20 7.53 · Draw 4.59 · 福塔雷萨U20 1.29
- Implied 1X2 · 考卡亚U20 11.8% · Draw 19.4% · 福塔雷萨U20 68.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 考卡亚U20 6.51 · Draw 4.23 · 福塔雷萨U20 1.38
- Implied 1X2 · 考卡亚U20 13.8% · Draw 21.2% · 福塔雷萨U20 65.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 福塔雷萨U20 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
塞阿拉州 U20 联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 维拉雷亚尔FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | 塞阿拉U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | 帕格梅诺斯U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | 考卡亚U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | 奥里宗特U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | 天堂之子U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Tianguá CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 维拉雷亚尔FC U20 | 5 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | 帕格梅诺斯U20 | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | 塞阿拉U20 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | 奥里宗特U20 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 5 | 考卡亚U20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 6 | 天堂之子U20 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tianguá CE U20 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
