The model missed the final outcome (斯洛尼姆 win 1–3).
The model had projected 利达 at 47.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 利达 斯洛尼姆 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 利达 | 47.3% | 53.8% | -6.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 21.4% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| 斯洛尼姆 | 24.1% | 24.8% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.4%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 斯洛尼姆 win 1–3。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 利达; match finished 斯洛尼姆
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 利达 by 7.2 percentage points (40.1% vs model 47.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 利达 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · 斯洛尼姆 24.1%
- xG · 利达 1.55 — 斯洛尼姆 1.05
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 利达 1.67 · Draw 4.20 · 斯洛尼姆 3.62
- Implied 1X2 · 利达 53.8% · Draw 21.4% · 斯洛尼姆 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 利达 1.67 · Draw 4.20 · 斯洛尼姆 3.62
- Implied 1X2 · 利达 53.8% · Draw 21.4% · 斯洛尼姆 24.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 斯洛尼姆 win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
白俄罗斯甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 尼瓦 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 54 |
| 2 | 斯卢茨克FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 3 | 利达 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 51 |
| 4 | 明斯克能源队 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 5 | 斯洛尼姆 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | 莫洛杰奇诺-DYuSSh 4 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | 索利戈尔斯克矿工 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | 布姆普罗姆 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 37 |
| 9 | 明斯克迪纳摩二队 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 10 | 奥斯特罗韦茨FC | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 11 | 沃尔纳 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 34 |
| 12 | 斯莫尔贡 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 13 | 明斯克二队 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 |
| 14 | Uni明斯克 | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 |
| 15 | 奥尔沙 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 16 | 戈梅利二队 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 |
| 17 | 鲍里索夫BATE二队 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 |
| 18 | 奥西波维奇 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 尼瓦 | 26 | 67 | 31 | +36 | 54 |
| 2 | 明斯克能源队 | 26 | 53 | 31 | +22 | 50 |
| 3 | 斯卢茨克FC | 26 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
| 4 | 索利戈尔斯克矿工 | 26 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 39 |
| 5 | 利达 | 26 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 51 |
| 6 | 斯洛尼姆 | 26 | 48 | 31 | +17 | 46 |
| 7 | 布姆普罗姆 | 25 | 47 | 37 | +10 | 37 |
| 8 | 莫洛杰奇诺-DYuSSh 4 | 25 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 45 |
| 9 | 明斯克迪纳摩二队 | 25 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 10 | 沃尔纳 | 26 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | 奥斯特罗韦茨FC | 26 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 34 |
| 12 | 明斯克二队 | 26 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | 戈梅利二队 | 26 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 21 |
| 14 | 鲍里索夫BATE二队 | 26 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 21 |
| 15 | 斯莫尔贡 | 26 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 30 |
| 16 | 奥尔沙 | 26 | 28 | 51 | -23 | 26 |
| 17 | 奥西波维奇 | 25 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 18 |
| 18 | Uni明斯克 | 26 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 26 |
