The model missed the final outcome (水原FMC win 2–1).
The model had projected 首尔 at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 首尔 水原FMC ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 水原FMC | 29.7% | 76.2% | -46.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 14.6% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
| 首尔 | 40.9% | 9.2% | +31.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 水原FMC's win probability at 76.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 46.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 水原FMC win 2–1。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 首尔; match finished 水原FMC
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 首尔 by 46.5 percentage points (87.4% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 水原FMC 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · 首尔 41.0%
- xG · 水原FMC 1.18 — 首尔 1.42
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 水原FMC 1.17 · Draw 6.50 · 首尔 12.00
- Implied 1X2 · 水原FMC 78.3% · Draw 14.1% · 首尔 7.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 水原FMC 1.20 · Draw 6.25 · 首尔 10.00
- Implied 1X2 · 水原FMC 76.2% · Draw 14.6% · 首尔 9.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 水原FMC win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (47 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
WK联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 水原FMC | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | 华川KSPO | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 47 |
| 3 | 庆州 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 |
| 4 | 保宁尚武 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | 龟尾体育토토 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 6 | 首尔 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 7 | 仁川红天使 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | 昌宁 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 水原FMC | 24 | 58 | 19 | +39 | 56 |
| 2 | 庆州 | 24 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 34 |
| 3 | 华川KSPO | 24 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 47 |
| 4 | 保宁尚武 | 24 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 33 |
| 5 | 龟尾体育토토 | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | 首尔 | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 30 |
| 7 | 昌宁 | 24 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 15 |
| 8 | 仁川红天使 | 24 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
