The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 民族队 at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 民族队 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 民族队 | 38.1% | 24.1% | +14.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.6% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| 瓜拉塞奥SC | 32.5% | 47.3% | -14.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 瓜拉塞奥SC's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.5%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 瓜拉塞奥SC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 民族队; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 民族队 by 14.8 percentage points (52.9% vs model 38.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 20:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 民族队 38.1% · Draw 29.4% · 瓜拉塞奥SC 32.5%
- xG · 民族队 1.42 — 瓜拉塞奥SC 1.18
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 民族队 3.79 · Draw 3.20 · 瓜拉塞奥SC 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · 民族队 24.1% · Draw 28.6% · 瓜拉塞奥SC 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 民族队 3.79 · Draw 3.20 · 瓜拉塞奥SC 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · 民族队 24.1% · Draw 28.6% · 瓜拉塞奥SC 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
厄瓜多尔职业足球乙级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 独立青年队 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | 竞技FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 十月9队 | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | 德尔波蒂沃昆卡青年队 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | 库尼布罗 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | 圣安东尼奥 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | 瓜拉塞奥SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | 圣多明各 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | 波托维耶霍LDU | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | 昆巴亚 | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 七月22队 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | 民族队 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 独立青年队 | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | 竞技FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | 库尼布罗 | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | 圣安东尼奥 | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 十月9队 | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | 昆巴亚 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | 德尔波蒂沃昆卡青年队 | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | 瓜拉塞奥SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | 圣多明各 | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | 波托维耶霍LDU | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | 民族队 | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 七月22队 | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
