The model missed the final outcome (Shamiya win 3–0).
The model had projected Yarmouk at 51.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 Yarmouk Shamiya ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamiya | 22.3% | 9.3% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 26.1% | 15.4% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Yarmouk | 51.6% | 75.3% | -23.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Yarmouk's win probability at 75.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.6%, a difference of 23.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Shamiya win 3–0。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.91) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Yarmouk; match finished Shamiya
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on Yarmouk by 23.6 percentage points (75.2% vs model 51.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shamiya 22.3% · Draw 26.1% · Yarmouk 51.6%
- xG · Shamiya 1.12 — Yarmouk 1.79
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shamiya 9.42 · Draw 5.72 · Yarmouk 1.17
- Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 9.3% · Draw 15.4% · Yarmouk 75.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shamiya 9.42 · Draw 5.72 · Yarmouk 1.17
- Implied 1X2 · Shamiya 9.3% · Draw 15.4% · Yarmouk 75.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Shamiya win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
科威特甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 阿尔苏莱比哈特队 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 2 | 阿尔萨赫尔队 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 44 |
| 3 | Yarmouk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 4 | Al Jazira | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 5 | Khaitan | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 27 |
| 6 | Burgan | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yarmouk | 21 | 42 | 20 | +22 | 43 |
| 2 | Al Jazira | 21 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 38 |
| 3 | 阿尔苏莱比哈特队 | 21 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 44 |
| 4 | 阿尔萨赫尔队 | 21 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 44 |
| 5 | Burgan | 21 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 23 |
| 6 | Khaitan | 21 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 27 |
| 7 | Shamiya | 21 | 19 | 63 | -44 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporty | 21 | 14 | 49 | -35 | 6 |
