The model missed the final outcome (约维凤凰 win 2–3).
The model had projected 卢恩亚 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (5 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 卢恩亚 约维凤凰 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 卢恩亚 | 39.0% | 42.9% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.7% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
| 约维凤凰 | 31.5% | 35.4% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 约维凤凰 win 2–3。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 卢恩亚; match finished 约维凤凰
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 卢恩亚 by 7.8 percentage points (31.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 卢恩亚 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · 约维凤凰 31.5%
- xG · 卢恩亚 1.38 — 约维凤凰 1.22
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 卢恩亚 2.07 · Draw 4.09 · 约维凤凰 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · 卢恩亚 42.9% · Draw 21.7% · 约维凤凰 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 卢恩亚 2.07 · Draw 4.09 · 约维凤凰 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · 卢恩亚 42.9% · Draw 21.7% · 约维凤凰 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 约维凤凰 win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
爱沙尼亚乙级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 纳尔瓦U21 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | 利瓦迪亚U19 | 28 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 53 |
| 3 | 凤凰队 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 48 |
| 4 | 卢恩亚 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | 约维凤凰 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | 塔尔图卡列夫 | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | 派尔努JK Vaprus U21 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 43 |
| 7 | 图列维克 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | 塔巴萨卢JK | 28 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 32 |
| 9 | 塔林纳卡列夫II | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 26 |
| 10 | 军团队 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 12 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 派尔努JK Vaprus U21 | 28 | 83 | 58 | +25 | 43 |
| 2 | 卢恩亚 | 28 | 74 | 61 | +13 | 47 |
| 3 | 利瓦迪亚U19 | 28 | 71 | 47 | +24 | 53 |
| 4 | 图列维克 | 28 | 69 | 57 | +12 | 41 |
| 5 | 塔尔图卡列夫 | 28 | 67 | 52 | +15 | 44 |
| 6 | 纳尔瓦U21 | 27 | 66 | 34 | +32 | 54 |
| 7 | 凤凰队 | 28 | 64 | 63 | +1 | 48 |
| 8 | 塔林纳卡列夫II | 28 | 56 | 71 | -15 | 26 |
| 9 | 约维凤凰 | 19 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 | 塔巴萨卢JK | 28 | 41 | 77 | -36 | 32 |
| 11 | 军团队 | 27 | 27 | 98 | -71 | 12 |
