AI correctly predicted the 纳尔瓦U21 win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 纳尔瓦U21 纳尔瓦U21 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 军团队 | 27.5% | 5.7% | +21.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.1% | 6.2% | +23.0 pp | Model Edge |
| 纳尔瓦U21 | 43.4% | 88.2% | -44.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 纳尔瓦U21's win probability at 88.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 44.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（纳尔瓦U21 win 1–3）。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 纳尔瓦U21 higher (88.2% vs model 43.4%, 44.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (纳尔瓦U21 win 1–3).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 军团队 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · 纳尔瓦U21 43.3%
- xG · 军团队 1.13 — 纳尔瓦U21 1.47
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 军团队 16.02 · Draw 14.73 · 纳尔瓦U21 1.03
- Implied 1X2 · 军团队 5.7% · Draw 6.2% · 纳尔瓦U21 88.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 军团队 16.02 · Draw 14.73 · 纳尔瓦U21 1.03
- Implied 1X2 · 军团队 5.7% · Draw 6.2% · 纳尔瓦U21 88.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 纳尔瓦U21 win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (45 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
爱沙尼亚乙级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 纳尔瓦U21 | 29 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 60 |
| 2 | 利瓦迪亚U19 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 56 |
| 3 | 凤凰队 | 30 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | 约维凤凰 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
| 4 | 塔尔图卡列夫 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 47 |
| 5 | 卢恩亚 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | 派尔努JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | 图列维克 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 | 塔巴萨卢JK | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 9 | 塔林纳卡列夫II | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 10 | 军团队 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 派尔努JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 95 | 62 | +33 | 46 |
| 2 | 利瓦迪亚U19 | 30 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 56 |
| 3 | 图列维克 | 29 | 74 | 60 | +14 | 44 |
| 4 | 卢恩亚 | 30 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 47 |
| 5 | 塔尔图卡列夫 | 29 | 71 | 52 | +19 | 47 |
| 6 | 凤凰队 | 30 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 54 |
| 7 | 纳尔瓦U21 | 29 | 69 | 35 | +34 | 60 |
| 8 | 塔林纳卡列夫II | 30 | 60 | 77 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | 约维凤凰 | 19 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 | 塔巴萨卢JK | 30 | 44 | 81 | -37 | 33 |
| 11 | 军团队 | 29 | 28 | 111 | -83 | 13 |
