The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 塔林FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 塔林FC 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 塔林FC | 36.1% | 40.4% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.7% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| 诺梅联队二队 | 34.2% | 39.0% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.7%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 塔林FC; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 塔林FC by 9.0 percentage points (27.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 塔林FC 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 诺梅联队二队 34.2%
- xG · 塔林FC 1.32 — 诺梅联队二队 1.28
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 塔林FC 2.19 · Draw 4.28 · 诺梅联队二队 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · 塔林FC 40.4% · Draw 20.7% · 诺梅联队二队 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 塔林FC 2.19 · Draw 4.28 · 诺梅联队二队 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · 塔林FC 40.4% · Draw 20.7% · 诺梅联队二队 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
爱沙尼亚甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 塔尔图韦尔科 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 56 |
| 2 | 维姆西 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 50 |
| 3 | 弗洛拉II | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | 埃尔瓦 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | 马尔杜 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | FCI利瓦迪亚二队 | 28 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 38 |
| 7 | 塔林卡列夫 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | 塔林FC | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 9 | 诺梅联队二队 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 30 |
| 10 | 诺梅卡柳二队 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 塔尔图韦尔科 | 28 | 76 | 39 | +37 | 56 |
| 2 | 弗洛拉II | 28 | 69 | 49 | +20 | 47 |
| 3 | 维姆西 | 28 | 56 | 28 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 | FCI利瓦迪亚二队 | 28 | 55 | 54 | +1 | 38 |
| 5 | 塔林卡列夫 | 28 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 36 |
| 6 | 马尔杜 | 28 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 7 | 诺梅联队二队 | 28 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 30 |
| 8 | 埃尔瓦 | 28 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 44 |
| 9 | 塔林FC | 28 | 37 | 59 | -22 | 31 |
| 10 | 诺梅卡柳二队 | 28 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 22 |
