The model missed the final outcome (温哥华FC win 0–1).
The model had projected 福奇 at 45.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 福奇 温哥华FC ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 0-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 福奇 | 45.9% | 56.5% | -10.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.4% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| 温哥华FC | 28.6% | 19.1% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 福奇's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.9%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 温哥华FC win 0–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 福奇 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 福奇 by 10.5 percentage points (56.4% vs model 45.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 福奇 45.9% · Draw 25.5% · 温哥华FC 28.6%
- xG · 福奇 1.82 — 温哥华FC 1.41
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 福奇 1.62 · Draw 3.74 · 温哥华FC 4.79
- Implied 1X2 · 福奇 56.5% · Draw 24.4% · 温哥华FC 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 福奇 1.62 · Draw 3.74 · 温哥华FC 4.79
- Implied 1X2 · 福奇 56.5% · Draw 24.4% · 温哥华FC 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 07, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 温哥华FC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
加拿大超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 卡尔加里骑兵 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 50 |
| 2 | 福奇 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| 3 | 渥太华竞技 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 4 | 温哥华FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 5 | 哈利法克斯流浪者 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | 魁北克苏普拉 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 7 | 约克联队 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | 太平洋FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 卡尔加里骑兵 | 22 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 50 |
| 2 | 哈利法克斯流浪者 | 23 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 26 |
| 3 | 福奇 | 22 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 46 |
| 4 | 温哥华FC | 24 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32 |
| 5 | 渥太华竞技 | 23 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 34 |
| 6 | 约克联队 | 22 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 24 |
| 7 | 魁北克苏普拉 | 22 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 | 太平洋FC | 22 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 11 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | xG | xGC | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 卡尔加里骑兵 | 22 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 50 |
| 2 | 太平洋FC | 22 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 3 | 福奇 | 22 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 46 |
| 4 | 温哥华FC | 24 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 32 |
| 5 | 魁北克苏普拉 | 22 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | 哈利法克斯流浪者 | 23 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | 渥太华竞技 | 23 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 8 | 约克联队 | 22 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
