The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 里加 at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 是 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 里加 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 里加 | 46.8% | 77.0% | -30.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 13.4% | +15.3 pp | Model Edge |
| 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC | 24.5% | 9.6% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 里加's win probability at 77.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 30.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned 里加; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 里加 by 30.2 percentage points (77.0% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 里加 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 24.6%
- xG · 里加 1.54 — 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 1.06
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 里加 1.20 · Draw 6.92 · 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 9.63
- Implied 1X2 · 里加 77.0% · Draw 13.4% · 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 9.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 里加 1.20 · Draw 6.92 · 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 9.63
- Implied 1X2 · 里加 77.0% · Draw 13.4% · 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC 9.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
历史标签: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
拉脱维亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里加FS | 29 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 73 |
| 2 | 里加 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 67 |
| 3 | 奥达 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 57 |
| 4 | 利耶帕亚FK | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 5 | 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 6 | 超级新星 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 35 |
| 7 | 叶尔加瓦FS | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 8 | 格罗比尼亚 | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| 9 | 图库姆斯 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 |
| 10 | 奥格雷联队 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 15 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里加 | 29 | 84 | 30 | +54 | 67 |
| 2 | 里加FS | 29 | 70 | 21 | +49 | 73 |
| 3 | 奥达 | 29 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 | 图库姆斯 | 30 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 23 |
| 5 | 利耶帕亚FK | 30 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 42 |
| 6 | 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC | 30 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | 叶尔加瓦FS | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 32 |
| 8 | 超级新星 | 28 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 35 |
| 9 | 奥格雷联队 | 29 | 29 | 75 | -46 | 15 |
| 10 | 格罗比尼亚 | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 25 |
