AI correctly predicted the 里加FS win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 里加FS 里加FS ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 叶尔加瓦FS | 22.3% | 11.6% | +10.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.9% | 17.1% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| 里加FS | 51.8% | 71.3% | -19.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 里加FS's win probability at 71.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.8%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（里加FS win 0–1）。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 里加FS than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 里加FS higher (71.2% vs model 51.8%, 19.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (里加FS win 0–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 19:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 叶尔加瓦FS 22.3% · Draw 25.9% · 里加FS 51.8%
- xG · 叶尔加瓦FS 1.17 — 里加FS 1.43
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 叶尔加瓦FS 7.96 · Draw 5.42 · 里加FS 1.30
- Implied 1X2 · 叶尔加瓦FS 11.6% · Draw 17.1% · 里加FS 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 叶尔加瓦FS 7.96 · Draw 5.42 · 里加FS 1.30
- Implied 1X2 · 叶尔加瓦FS 11.6% · Draw 17.1% · 里加FS 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 里加FS win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
拉脱维亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里加FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 74 |
| 2 | 里加 | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 73 |
| 3 | 奥达 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 4 | 利耶帕亚FK | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | 超级新星 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | 叶尔加瓦FS | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 8 | 格罗比尼亚 | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | 图库姆斯 | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 24 |
| 10 | 奥格雷联队 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 18 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 里加 | 31 | 86 | 30 | +56 | 73 |
| 2 | 里加FS | 30 | 71 | 22 | +49 | 74 |
| 3 | 奥达 | 31 | 49 | 30 | +19 | 61 |
| 4 | 图库姆斯 | 31 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 24 |
| 5 | 利耶帕亚FK | 31 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
| 6 | 陶格夫皮尔斯BFC | 31 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 39 |
| 7 | 叶尔加瓦FS | 31 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | 奥格雷联队 | 31 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 18 |
| 9 | 超级新星 | 30 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 35 |
| 10 | 格罗比尼亚 | 31 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 26 |
