The model missed the final outcome (塔梅卡 win 3–1).
The model had projected 塔林弗洛拉 at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 塔林弗洛拉 塔梅卡 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 塔梅卡 | 25.0% | 20.7% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.7% | 22.4% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| 塔林弗洛拉 | 46.3% | 56.9% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 塔林弗洛拉's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 塔梅卡 win 3–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 塔林弗洛拉 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 塔林弗洛拉; match finished 塔梅卡
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 塔林弗洛拉 by 10.6 percentage points (56.8% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 塔梅卡 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · 塔林弗洛拉 46.3%
- xG · 塔梅卡 1.07 — 塔林弗洛拉 1.53
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 塔梅卡 4.48 · Draw 4.13 · 塔林弗洛拉 1.63
- Implied 1X2 · 塔梅卡 20.7% · Draw 22.4% · 塔林弗洛拉 56.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 塔梅卡 4.48 · Draw 4.13 · 塔林弗洛拉 1.63
- Implied 1X2 · 塔梅卡 20.7% · Draw 22.4% · 塔林弗洛拉 56.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 塔梅卡 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
爱沙尼亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 塔林利瓦迪亚 | 27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 68 |
| 2 | 塔林弗洛拉 | 28 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 52 |
| 3 | 卡尔尤诺梅 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 47 |
| 4 | 派德 | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | 塔梅卡 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 44 |
| 6 | 拉格里 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 34 |
| 7 | 瓦普鲁斯 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 34 |
| 8 | 诺梅联队 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 9 | 库雷萨雷 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| 10 | 纳尔瓦Trans | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 18 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 塔林利瓦迪亚 | 27 | 74 | 20 | +54 | 68 |
| 2 | 塔林弗洛拉 | 28 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 52 |
| 3 | 卡尔尤诺梅 | 28 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 47 |
| 4 | 诺梅联队 | 28 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 28 |
| 5 | 派德 | 27 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 6 | 拉格里 | 28 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 34 |
| 7 | 瓦普鲁斯 | 27 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 34 |
| 8 | 塔梅卡 | 27 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 44 |
| 9 | 库雷萨雷 | 28 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 28 |
| 10 | 纳尔瓦Trans | 28 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 18 |
